Life's Short. Live Better.

Victoria Real Estate. Why I'm bullish. In the long run at least.

There are some key factors why we believe Victoria will be one of the best markets in the world to own real estate in:

1. Geography. Everyone knows that Victoria is the warmest place to live in Canada, but few people appreciate that the city is almost completely surrounded by water. The highest real estate prices in the world are in places geographically restricted by water, mountains or borders.

2. Tourism Time Bomb. Emerging tourist markets. The World Tourism Council predicts that global travel will double from 800 million to 1.6 billion global travelers from 2008 through 2020. 

3. Political Stability. Safety. Canada is one of, if not the best country in the world to live in. Simply put, there are few places which are as safe and enjoyable to live and visit as Victoria. Part of the reason for this is Victoria is on an island. 

4. Global Population Growth. As the old cliche says, "They aren't making any more prime real estate".  Global population and more importantly, global wealth swells, prime locations will be driven up in price, and sought after.

Tourism Stats - Victoria and Global

Some good resources out there - Tourism Victoria, if you're interested in Victoria BC of course. Try Market Metrix for broader more global or regional trends. 

2010 Olympics in Vancouver...365 and counting

Controversial? Definitely. Most people accept that the olympic games are a good thing for local economies. But there are the naysayers that disagree with spending billions when we have serious social problems such as homelessness and unemployment. That's where the controversy begins. 

Who's right? Are the Olympics 'money makers'? or a waste of taxpayers funds?  

It's definitely speculative by any measure, but there are sophisticated studies which examine the issue.

The claim is that in all but about 10% of the time, the Olympics make $$ for the host city/region. I guess there's risk in any venture where upside is involved.

Deloitte Study On Tourism, Looking Forward

Great study on tourism forecast for major metro areas in the USA. 2009 looks tough, but there are bright spots notably the Pacific Coast benefiting from a lower dollar and the influx of Asians taking advantage of this. 

Here's an excerpt:

Tough times ahead

While 2009 is expected to be a tough year for global tourism and business travel, the US lodging sector is likely to return to growth in 2010. According to STR, hotels in the US will see an overall revPAR decline of 2.5% in 2009, and occupancy will dip to 59.1% - the lowest levels since 2003. Average room rates should see marginal improvements to close the year at $108, according to STR. 

Longer term, growth in employment, improvements in corporate profitability, a better supply/demand balance helped by slowing new construction, and gains in consumer net worth will likely add to the demand for lodging. Any drop in airfares, mostly from lower energy

prices, should also help the industry.

Demographic Trends to 2050 & Historical Tourism Patterns

Interesting demographic forecasts by the IMF. The image below says a lot. 

What do current tourism patterns look like? UN World Tourism Organization historical figures here. Forecast for 2020 here. 

Tourism Time Bomb

Tourism. It's one of the fastest growing industries in the world. How fast? Where?

The cliche of, "they aren't making any more waterfront" couldn't be more accurate.

There are 800 million 'global tourists' today. By 2020 there are forecast to be 800 million more.

Wow.

Where are they coming from? Where are they traveling to? Check the article out in the Harvard Business Review.

Las Vegas, Dubai and Cancun...common denominators

I returned from Las Vegas one week a common go today, after attending the annual American Resort Development Association conference.

Over 4000 attendees, from 38 countries attend. Really its the global "shared ownership" conference. Vacation ownership, timeshare, fractional ownership and private residence clubs.

Each year we take a number of Avia team members. Its a great team building experience, as well as educational learning experience. The conference isn't bad either.

Las Vegas is a spectacle. Las Vegas is very spiky, as per the below post.

We will see more cities like this in the future. Not necessarily gambling and large hotels. But rather the 'largest in their class'. Look at Dubai It's a perfect example of mega-everything. Build it and they will come.

Cancun is probably one of the first examples. "We're going to build a city here, and it will draw millions of tourists" - and it does. Cancun had 3 residents in 1970.

Where's the next megaopolis? I'd like to own some property there now.

RCI Points = San Francisco VALUE

I just booked a room in downtown San Francisco, at the Hotel Donatello right near union square. It's an affiliate property Aviawest has access to, through RCI Points. It took about 4 minutes to book a unit there, 30,000 RCI Points and $105 inc tax, for 5 nights.

Last time I attended the Ragatz Fractional interest conference, I stayed at the host hotel. The Fairmont. It's a great, grand old hotel but standard city rates apply - $259/night + 14% taxes for the conference, and a best rate of $379/night without the special conference rate.

Yes we are not staying at the Fairmont. The rates are posted at $189 -$279 at the Donatello. Is the Donatello inferior? Not by location or the quality. It's 3 blocks from the Fairmont. Smaller? Yes. Without the pretentiousness? Probably. My brother was there for his Honeymoon and loved it.

So, the value proposition is as follows:

• Rent the at the Donatello $209 x 5=$1045+14% = $1191 USD
• Rent the Fairmont on conference rate $259 x 5=1295 +14%=$1476 USD
• Rent the Fairmont without conference rate $379 x 5=$1895 +14%= $2160 USD
• Use 30,000 Aviawest / RCI Points for 5 nights at the Donatello $105 CAD

$105 VS $1191
I'm not always able to use RCI Points for business trips and conferences, but it's definitely viable in New York, San Francisco, Orlando and Las Vegas. However, the system work best for personal trips when the dates of departure are more flexible or the location.

RCI Points simply allows one to access great properties, at amazing rates. After only a few trips, the value of being a vacation owner, is very easily realized.

Something else really special happens too. After checking out of a hotel where the transactional cost was only $105 for 5 nights, you feel great. Everyone loves getting a great deal.

Aviawest.com  images courtesy of http://www.clubdonatello.org

Surf Lake Superior...yes on the lake.

I was visiting family in the Thunder Bay area last weekend, and my father in-law was asking if I wanted to go surfing. Surfing? Fly somewhere?...I wasn't sure what he meant. He's 57 and surfs, in the winter, on lake Superior - there's even a club and website.

New Aviawest Property - The Pinnacle Lodge at Sun Peaks

 

Our company Aviawest, just purchased the Pinnacle lodge to roll into our vacation ownership group, Aviawest Resort Club.  Here's the press release.

The Pinnacle is a fantastic European style pension, with 21 rooms and is ski in and about a 5 minute walk to the Sun Peaks Village.

We'll be working on a few renovations over the next month or so - we're upgrading duvets, artwork and replacing carpets in some areas.

The property will be operated as one of Aviawest's RCI Points locations, and we expect it to be popular among Aviawest owners and RCI's 3 million members.

The Pinnacle is the perfect addition of a mountain, ski & hiking destination to the 5 existing Aviawest locations.